So you want to know about ... By-elections (August 2026 edition)

Image Credit: Radio-Canada

For the second time this Parliament, it's by-election season.

With just under one week to go until the latest round of federal by-elections completely occupies the daily news cycle, it's worth taking the time to discuss the concept of a by-election and the importance of the ongoing campaign.

What even is a by-election?

A by-election is an election which takes place between regularly-scheduled elections and usually involves a small number of ridings. These ridings are alike in that their representative has stepped aside from their work as an MP/MPP/MLA, and that the premier/Prime Minister must call a by-election within six months of the seat becoming vacant.

Oftentimes, by-elections are small in terms of the number of ridings contested or in terms of their individual impact on the makeup of the legislature.

But by-elections can impact the kind of government seen at a given moment. Just this past April, a series of federal by-elections helped the incumbent Liberals obtain a majority government; though they would have done so with just one win out of three, they were able to pull off a sweep of all three ridings to cement that status. Their success in April also marked the first occasion since 2019 that Canada experienced a majority government, with the previous three federal elections all yielding minority Parliaments.

What's up for grabs?

On Monday, August 31, voters in three federal ridings will head to the polls to elect new Members of Parliament. The federal ridings in question are Beaches-East York (Ontario), North Vancouver-Capilano (British Columbia), and Chicoutimi-Le Fjord (Quebec). The three ridings will join Battle-River Crowfoot (Alberta), Terrebonne (Quebec), Scarborough Southwest (Ontario), and University-Rosedale (Ontario) on the list of by-elections to have taken place during this 45th Parliament, bringing the total number to seven.

Let's look at each riding individually.

Beaches-East York, which had been long rumoured to be a seat of interest, was officially opened up when longtime MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith stepped aside to run for a seat with the Ontario Liberal Party and, by extension, their leadership. Though he did not earn the nomination to run for a seat provincially, he honoured his word and stepped aside. He also entered the race for the same district at the municipal level, which will be up for grabs during the October municipal elections.

The Liberal candidate looking to replace Erskine-Smith is Tanveer Shahnawaz, who acted as his campaign office manager. The Conservatives will run local restaurateur Jim Syrbos, who co-founded the coffee company East Toronto Coffee Co. and whose family founded Square Boy. Meanwhile, the NDP will put Shannon Devine back into the race after previously nominating her as their candidate in the riding in 2025, while former journalist/TTC bus driver Bruce Livesey will represent the Green Party.

Current 338Canada polling has the Liberals soundly ahead of the second-place NDP in the riding. Though the Liberals are down to 62% support in the riding, they are still 45% ahead of an NDP that has seen an increase in their vote share across the country. The Conservatives are in third place in terms of support, with only 16% of the vote going their way ahead of Monday's vote.

Out west, it's a similar picture.

Jonathan Wilkinson, a longtime Liberal MP and Cabinet Minister who first entered the House when Justin Trudeau's Liberals came to power, stepped aside in the riding of North Vancouver-Capilano to pursue the role of Canada's ambassador to the European Union. The Liberals will look to retain the seat when they run Braeden Caley, who has a long history of working for the party. He first volunteered for the Liberals in 2011 while working for them as their Senior Director of Communications for six years. He also co-directed a national campaign that aided Prime Minister Mark Carney in his electoral victory last spring.

The Conservatives will counter with business lawyer Stephen Curran, who ran in the riding during the 2025 federal election. The NDP will send former provincial constituency advisor and union member Stephen Tweedale into the race, and the Greens will nominate environmental scientist Shelley Luce as their candidate.

338Canada shows that Liberal polling is relatively stable in the riding at 59%, but Conservative support has dropped from 33.7% in 2025 to just 29%. That said, they have a comfortable lead over the third-place NDP, who gained almost 3% in riding support since the spring of 2025, while the Greens have only jumped to 4% in support since that time.

But the tightest race of them all will be seen out in Quebec.

Conservative MP Richard Martel, who represented the riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, will vacate his seat after being appointed to the Senate of Canada by Carney. But his departure and the subsequent by-election call yielded the emergence of a very tight three-way race that could very well see the riding flip.

With 338Canada projecting a very slim Bloc Québecois advantage in the riding, party leader Yves-François Blanchet and his team are hoping to capitalize on a slight increase in support when they send Caroline Dubé into the proverbial ring. Dubé worked as the Director of Community Vitality and Special Projects with the MRC of Lac-Saint-Jean-Est and as the office director for Bloc MP Mario Simard.

With tariffs directly acting as a backdrop in Chicoutimi, the Liberals will counter with Daniel Gobéil, who served as the vice-president of the Dairy Farmers of Quebec. The Conservatives will run teacher/lawyer Régis Gaudreault as their candidate in the riding, the NDP will field the former vice-president of their youth wing in Raphaël Émond, while the Green Party will nominate former Montreal City Councillor Nathaniel (Nathe) Perrone.

The Bloc Québecois currently holds 34% support in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord compared to the Liberals' 33%. The Conservatives are down to 28% support, while the NDP sit in fourth with 3% support. The Greens sit in fifth in the riding with just 2% support.

What lies beyond?

Beyond next Monday's vote, six additional federal ridings will require new representatives. The respective by-elections have yet to be called, though a handful of those ridings are yet to be officially vacated.

Even then, Canadians should assume that the poll-watching isn't over just yet and that each individual vote could still very well determine the political landscape in Ottawa and beyond.